Why 20 Small Projects Beat 2 Mega-Projects. Diversification isn't just for stock portfolios.
12%Over budget
2.06xSmall wins
Member
A company's capital decisions,
connected.
Every decision links to its evidence, its method,
the people around it, and what it taught us.
Capvium is the AI operating system for enterprise capital allocation and capital project portfolio decisions.
Request demoWhere capital competes
Every project·Every dollar·Every decision
Capvium continuously evaluates capital, resources, schedules, market conditions, and risk across your portfolio — recommending where investments should accelerate, pause, or stop.
Ingest Simulate Size Decide Learn
Questions
Three questions decide whether a capital plan survives the year. The engine answers all three on the same portfolio, in the same run.
Which ones deserve capital?
Identify the projects that create the greatest value for the risk taken.
| Project | Sector | Expected Value(NPV £M) | Risk Signal(L. Risk) | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Refinery Expansion | Energy | £78.6M | 2.8% | Proceed |
| Data Centre Build | Digital Infra | £64.3M | 4.2% | Proceed |
| Wind Portfolio | Renewables | £32.1M | 6.7% | Watch |
| Fleet Renewal | Logistics | £18.7M | 9.3% | Do not allocate |
How much should each one get?
Size every commitment in dollars under the actual available budget.
Total budget: £200M
Refinery Expansion£78.0M39%
Data Centre Build£56.0M28%
Wind Portfolio£22.0M11%
Fleet Renewal£12.4M6%
Reserve / Unallocated£31.6M16%
Scale
0£50M£100M£150M£200M
What happens in the bad year?
Stress-test the portfolio and see the probability of an unacceptable loss.
Probability of unrecoverable loss
Recommended plan 4.7%
Current plan 9.8%
4.7%
0%2%5%10%15%20%+
Target ≤ 5% · Max loss (stress): £146M
Products
The engines behind the platform
Chronova
The capital decision journey
How Chronova carries a capital book from portfolio inputs to post-decision tracking: eight stages, one engine. Select a stage, or let it play.
Prognode
See how a project moves
The megaproject that foresees its own future. Double-click any node or figure to see what is at risk and why.
Atelier
Decision tools, tailored to the decision
What you know, and what the outside record shows, turned into a risk picture of your whole portfolio. Double-click anything to look closer.
Every claim on your capex, sized and stress-tested in one portfolio view.
Total Capex
$121.5M
Blended Return
+20%
Blended Downside
-9%
Stress Scenario
Base Case
Downturn
Market Shock
Capital Claims 4 rows · click to inspect
| Claim | Vertical | Budget | Exp. Return | Downside | Decision |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual Capex Baseline | Oil & Gas | $42.0M | +18% | -6% | Proceed |
| Maintenance vs Growth Allocation | Infrastructure | $28.5M | +13% | -9% | Stage |
| Fleet Renewal Replacement | Oil & Gas | $16.2M | +22% | -13% | Hedge |
| Energy Transition Transformation | Data Centers | $34.8M | +26% | -10% | Stage |
Decision Readout
← Annual Capex
63.6
Decision Score
Proceed
Capital is cleared to deploy at the current size and pace.
Projected outcome band: -6% → +18%
Confidence81%
Budget Headroom8.2
Return Confidence12.6
Downside Exposure5.4
Payback Window14.0
Market Volatility6.9
Four tools, one workflow
Everything lives in one workspace, from the first uploaded schedule to the committee-ready scorecard.
Schedule Intelligence
Probabilistic read in seconds. Simulated dates, cost ranges, critical paths.
Budget Optimizer
The allocation engine. Sized commitments, downside numbers, stress tests.
Resource Planner
Find bottlenecks before they find you.
AI Advisor
Ask questions in plain English grounded in your actual portfolio data.
Built like an investor, not like a spreadsheet
You don't have to take the recommendation on faith. Every number is explainable, comparable, and auditable.
Sized, not ranked.
Recommendations come back in dollars per option — including “zero” when an option shouldn't make the cut at any size.
Downside first.
Before showing you the upside, the engine reports the chance of severe loss and sizes commitments so one bad year can't sink the plan.
Correlation-aware.
Options that share risks are modeled as sharing risks. Analyzed as a portfolio, not a stack of independent cases.
Systematic Overruns
Single-Point Promises
Ranked Lists, Not Sized Bets
Black-Box Analytics
Sized Capital Allocation
Evidence You Can Check
Hours, Not Quarters
Trust You Can Act On
Stress-tested by default.
Every plan is run through base, stress, and upside scenarios. See which commitments hold across all three.
Honest alternatives.
Shown side-by-side with ranked NPV, ranked IRR, and equal split so the committee sees exactly where we disagree.
Audit-ready.
Every run is logged. When someone asks “why did we fund this?” two years from now, the answer is one click away.
What the data reveals across industries
The Phase 2 Trap: Where $37B Disappears Every Year. The expansion decision is systematically mis-sized.
30.7%Phase 2-3
3xOver funded
+58%More drugs
The Megamine Paradox: Bigger Isn't Better. Scale economies in theory, correlation bombs in practice.
64%Over budget
2.3xSmall wins
Wherever capital is at stake
Oil & Gas
Infrastructure
Power & Nuclear
Renewables
Manufacturing
Data Centers
Corporate Portfolios
Three steps from data to decision
1
Upload
Point the engine at the schedule, the budget and the options already on the table. No re-platforming, no data project.
2
Analyze
The engine sizes every commitment, quantifies the downside, and stress-tests the plan in minutes.
3
Decide
Walk into the committee with sized recommendations, scenario evidence, and a defensible paper trail.
The fastest way to evaluate the engine is to point it at a decision you actually have to make this quarter. We'll run it with you.
Bring us one real decision.
Priced to the capital at stake, not the seat count.
See full pricing & features